s we look toward the 2000-03 triennium two strong convictions continue to guide our thinking. We are convinced first of all, that the Trilateral Commission remains as important as ever in helping our countries fulfil their shared leadership responsibilities in the wider international system and secondly, that its framework needs to be widened to reflect broader changes in the world. It is time for the Japanese Group to become a Pacific Asian Group, and for Mexican members to be added to the North American Group. The European Group will continue to widen in line with the enlargement of the EU. We will also continue in the new triennium our practice of inviting a number of participants from other key areas.
Continuing Leadership Tasks in a More Complex Context
While there have been many welcome developments since the end of the Cold War—a dramatically improved international security landscape, spreading democratic governance and market-driven economic growth being among them—the world is in many respects more complex and challenging. The “growing interdependence” that so impressed the founders of the Trilateral Commission in the early 1970s is deepening into “globalization.” In part because of these changes, new tensions and fractures are emerging within many societies that may imperil positive trends. The need for shared thinking and leadership by the Trilateral countries, who (along with the principal international organizations) remain the primary anchors of the wider international system, has not diminished therefore but, if anything, intensified. At the same time, however, their leadership must change to take into account the dramatic transformation of the international system. As relations with other countries become more mature—and power more diffuse—the leadership tasks of the Trilateral countries need to be carried out with others to an increasing extent.
Widening the Framework of the Trilateral Commission
The framework of the Trilateral Commission needs to be widened in the 2000-03 triennium to reflect this more complex context and the opportunities it provides.
Widening the Japanese Group into a Pacific Asian Group
The largest change will be the widening of the Japanese Group into a Pacific Asian Group for the following reasons:
- Given the rising economic and political importance of Pacific Asia in the international system, it is appropriate for others in the region to join Japan in the Trilateral Commission and thereby help them bear their share of responsibility for managing global problems.
- The de facto formation of a Pacific Asian regional grouping is well-advanced as evidenced by a growing number of regional consultative mechanisms and dialogue forums at intergovernmental and “track two” levels
- Although the degree of democratization varies within Pacific Asia, many countries in the region beyond Japan are now by and large industrialized democracies, thereby satisfying the core criterion for membership in the Trilateral Commission.
- Even though China clearly does not meet this criterion, the valuable involvement of Chinese experts in the Trilateral Commission’s Special Study Group on East Asia, as well as other forums, suggests that the participation of individuals from China will enrich the “trialogue” and contribute to the relevance of the work of the Commission. Other East Asian participants would also feel as awkward if China were excluded from an East Asian Group. Nevertheless, it should be recognized that continuing constraints will for the foreseeable future hinder the full participation of Chinese in Trilateral Commission activities.
Thus, as a result of discussions during the current triennium, the following plan has taken shape:
- South Korea.
A country group made up of about 5-7 members will be organized with its secretariat at the Seoul Forum.
- Australia/New Zealand.
A joint group will be formed, with some 4-5 members.
- ASEAN Five.
(Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand). Perhaps 10-15 individuals from these countries will become members, without forming a country group. It might be possible to have an informal chair for this group of ASEAN individuals.
- China.
We will invite up to five individuals from the Chinese mainland as “participants” in each annual meeting and encourage Chinese participation in project work. Our Chinese interlocutors have themselves told us that it would be impossible for them to become “members” at this stage, and that it would not bother them to have a different mode of participation from other Pacific Asians. Two or three persons each from Hong Kong and Taiwan will be invited as “participants” to each annual meeting in the new triennium
- These persons will be added to the current quota of 85 Japanese members, giving a Pacific Asian quota of up to 120. We believe this increase in our numbers will still be manageable.
The Continuing Widening of the European Group
The long-standing rule of the European group is that countries which receive the “green light” from Brussels for EU accession negotiations are then included in the Trilateral Commission. Thus the European group will discuss inclusion of new members from Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria and Malta in the course of the next triennium, as it did for Poland,
Hungary, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Slovenia and Cyprus in the current triennium. The European group, however, will not exceed its quota of 150 members.
Widening the North American Group to include Mexicans
The progress of economic and political reforms in Mexico, its membership in the OECD, and its increasing integration with the United States and Canada in NAFTA as well as closer ties with the EU and Japan, all argue in favor of Mexican members in the Trilateral Commission. The Mexican members—6 or so in the new triennium—will be in addition to the existing quotas of 85 U.S. members and 15 Canadian members.
Participants from Other Key Areas
We plan to continue the practice of including participants from other key parts of the world in our discussions. These countries or areas include India. They also include Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey. They include Latin America, the Middle East/North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa. In this triennium about 20 such individuals were invited including East Asians from beyond Japan. Almost the same number will be invited in the new triennium, excluding East Asians.
Giving Substance to the New Triennium
The above sets out the widened framework for the new triennium. It remains to give substance to our work in this wider framework through meeting programs and project work that are as useful as possible. The Chairmen will be focusing in the coming months on our next projects and meeting programs, drawing on the ideas of current and future members and participants. We welcome your input.
