Peace and Prosperity through Reason and Patience

Tragedy and Political Uncertainty in Japan
I am very glad to be back here at this Trilateral meeting to join in your discussions. First, however, let me take the liberty to speak a few words on behalf of Mr. Keizo Obuchi, the former Prime Minister. He was looking forward to welcoming you Trilateral members at your opening session Saturday morning and delivering a major diplomatic speech. However, in the early hours of Sunday last week the second of April, he was not feeling well and was hospitalized. Late Sunday evening a massive stroke hit him while in the hospital. Tuesday evening, the Cabinet, on the advice of the doctors, judged Mr. Obuchi as incapacitated and the Cabinet resigned en masse. Wednesday afternoon the Parliament, as prescribed by the constitution, elected Mr. Yoshiro Mori as the new Prime Minister. On the same day the new cabinet started—the same team under the new leader.

Although there is no way to convey Mr. Obuchi’s message to you, I am certain he would greatly regret that he is unable to be here with you and would wish for the success of our meeting. I hope you understand.

This unfortunate event leads to more mundane talk of Japanese politics in the coming months. A Lower House member’s term of office is four years at the maximum, but the Prime Minister can cut that term at any time by dissolving the House. In the past, the average tenure has been about two and a half years. This year is an exception. We have served now well over three years and we have until October before the term expires. There is a summit meeting of leaders of the industrialized states this July in Okinawa. Mr. Obuchi was working hard to make it a success, even issuing new ¥2000 bills with Okinawa’s landscape on it. We had generally expected that Mr. Obuchi would attend the Okinawa Summit first and dissolve the Diet later, but now the new Prime Minister, Mr. Mori, may have a different idea. Although he has not mentioned anything yet, it is perhaps more likely than not that he will dissolve the Diet first and form a new cabinet of his own choosing and then face the summit meeting. Nobody knows yet what is really to come, but my colleagues in the Diet are expecting earlier elections than otherwise.

Whenever the election is to be held, Mr. Mori is likely to win and carry on his cabinet with the support of the Komeito Party, but this is not a foregone conclusion. There may be some glitches because some voters do not like our alliance with a religious party. But you will see, anyway, in a few months.

Japan’s International Role in 21^st Century Asia-Pacific
The international role Japan endeavors to play in the early 21^st century is to promote peace, enhance prosperity, and improve human rights and education in the countries of this part of the world while Japan would limit its military preparedness to its own self-defense. For that purpose, the alliance between Japan and the United States is essential, and not just to our two countries, but to achieve the aforementioned regional objectives. In April, 1996, President Clinton of the United States visited Japan and issued a message jointly with then-Prime Minister Hashimoto entitled, “Meeting the Challenge of the 21^st Century.” For more than a year, officials of our two governments were conducting an intense review of the political and security environment of Asia and the Pacific region before coming to the declaration of the two government leaders.

The background against which the United States was prompted to join this declaration is the analysis and recommendations of the U.S. Department of Defense paper, United States Security Strategy for the East Asian and Pacific Region, issued in February, 1995. The interests of the United States in the early part of the 21^st Century, as stated in this paper, converge with that of Japan. It was no other than William Perry here, who issued this paper as the Secretary of Defense. Another old friend of the Trilateral Commission, Joseph Nye—as the Assistant Secretary of Defense—did an excellent job helping his boss crystallize the concept.

The paper recognized the United States as a Pacific power. Its history, geography, demography, and, more recently, trade proved that the United States is a Pacific power and must remain engaged in the Asia-Pacific region. The authors of the paper believe the United States’ presence in this area is generally welcome as a stabilizing factor. The United States will maintain 100,000 troops in the area in order, if necessary, to fight two major regional conflicts at the same time, for example, in the Persian Gulf and North Korea.

North Korea and China are the two major uncertainties in this part of the world. Regarding North Korea, Japan, the United States, the Republic of Korea, and China have worked out an informal North Korean framework agreement and are coordinating efforts through incessant dialogues. Japan just reopened a formal negotiating session last month in Pyongyang with North Korea to normalize diplomatic relations after a break in the talks of almost eight years. Japan and North Korea agreed to hold the next session in Tokyo sometime in May, although we detected no indication of any material breakthrough during the session in Pyongyang.

China’s military posture has a great impact on the expectations and the behavior of other states in this region, particularly on Japan, which has openly committed itself not to acquire nuclear weapons. China’s leaders insist their military build-up is defensive. Although there is no indication now suggesting otherwise, we would certainly welcome greater transparency in China’s defense program and philosophy. As Joseph Nye once said, treating China as an enemy would risk creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. Japan has been, and will continue, seeking to engage China and encourage its integration into the international community.

President Clinton recently appointed Mr. Perry to be his personal envoy to survey the North Korean situation and recommend an overall long-term policy to deal with a country led by an intransigent and unpredictable leader. As Mr. Perry kindly explained in great detail, after his extensive contacts, both official and personal, he advocates reason and patience—an astute recommendation to everybody involved since a mere stick-and-carrot policy will not do the job. I can say that now the peace and prosperity of this area relies very much on his wisdom and his well-considered recommendations.